Blog
Posted on April 28th, 2009 by Stewart Hauser
The Detroit Lions and New York Jets grabbed headlines in this weekend’s NFL Draft by snapping up potential franchise quarterbacks in Matthew Stafford and Mark Sanchez with the first and fifth overall picks, respectively. College quarterbacks are an extremely risky and unpredictable bunch, and it is therefore quite likely that at least one of these two teams is making a devastating mistake that will harm the franchise for years to come. Gary Huckabay of the thinktank Baseball Prospectus developed a concept called TINSTAAPP (“There Is No Such Thing As A Pitching Prospect”) to emphasize how difficult it is to predict which young pitchers will stay healthy and continue to develop. The concept could easily be applied to the quarterback position in the NFL.
First round, blue-chip quarterback prospects are truly hit-or-miss. Since 1998, a number of first round quarterbacks have panned out as above-average or better players, such as Peyton Manning, Donovan McNabb, Daunte Culpepper, Chad Pennington, Carson Palmer, Eli Manning, Philip Rivers, Ben Roethlisberger, Jay Cutler, and Matt Ryan. The list of first round failures, however, is just as long and ranges from spectacular flameouts such as Ryan Leaf and Akili Smith, to mere disappointments such as Tim Couch, Cade McNown, David Carr, Joey Harrington, Byron Leftwich, Alex Smith, and Rex Grossman. Vince Young, JaMarcus Russell, and Matt Leinart are dangerously close to being added to the failure list as well.
The Lions have guaranteed Stafford $41.7 million dollars and have staked their newest rebuilding plans on his development. Like the Jets with Mark Sanchez, Detroit is taking an enormous gamble by investing so much money and such a high draft pick on a position that is historically so hard to project. A safer strategy would be to use top picks on more predictable areas such as Defensive Tackle or Offensive Tackle and then to use later picks to try to find a franchise quarterback. The New England Patriots have hit the jackpot twice this decade in terms of finding great quarterbacks at the end of the draft, landing Tom Brady in the sixth round of the 2000 draft and Matt Cassell in the seventh round of the 2005 draft. Kurt Warner was undrafted and yet has led his teams to three Super Bowl appearances, while Tony Romo has had success with the Cowboys despite going undrafted as well.
Other quick observations from the sports world:
-In the NBA playoffs on Monday night, James Jones of the Miami Heat had two 4-point plays in a span of 11 seconds. I have never seen this before and I’m pretty sure that nobody else has, either. Meanwhile, in New Orleans, the hometown Hornets lost a home playoff game by an astounding 58 points, falling 121-63 to Denver.
-In baseball, Red Sox fans were ready to panic following the team’s 2-6 start, but have settled down considerably in the midst of the team’s current 11-game winning streak, which included a weekend sweep of the Yankees. In the National League, the Florida Marlins have lost 7 straight games and yet remain in first place, an occurrence that seems almost impossible in the month of April.
Great observations. Speaking of pitching prospects, where will Pedro end up? Handicapping the Derby? How do your tennis rankings sit versus USTA?
Thanks AJ. Pedro might not wind up anywhere; he’s working out in the Dominican Republic and holding out for $5M. I could see him taking a bit less if it came from a warm-weather playoff contender such as the Angels, but otherwise he’ll demand the full $5M and I’m not sure if any team will meet that price. The Angels and Nationals are the two most likely destinations. For the Kentucky Derby, I like Bob Baffert’s Pioneer of the Nile, with Chocolate Candy as my sleeper. As for your tennis question, I enjoy watching the sport but unfortunately don’t follow it too closely, so your guess is probably better than mine in terms of rankings.
Ok, but what’s your take on JETS reaching out to BURRESS? and what about H.SCHOOL basketball stars choosing Europe before school and the NFL?
I was reminded me of Malcolm Gladwell’s recent article in the New Yorker where he points out that some professions continue to reward those who have yet to prove themselves in ‘game time’ situations. As Gladwell states, the profession with the “most profound social consequences” is the profession of teaching, with its hiring practices and tenure.
http://www.newyorker.com/reporting/2008/12/15/081215fa_fact_gladwell
Some things to ponder –
- Has the increase in pay for Offensive Tackles (generally top drafts – see Michael Lewis’s ‘Blind Side’) had a measurable impact on the game and how do we measure it
- Did Sanchez take the Wonderlic Personnel (IQ) Test before the Jets draft?
- Is Gladwell aware of the work of Simulmedia? He may be a good thought leader to recruit for your cause…and is supposed to be a great public speaker.
Thanks Dominic. Great link.
Lisbeth, thanks for the questions. Plaxico Burress is a high risk / high reward player who might actually be a great gamble for the Jets. The team could definitely use a top wide receiver. The Jets would have to deal with the circus that might come with a Burress signing, but he is certainly a special talent.
You bring up an interesting topic in regards to Jeremy Tyler and other high school basketball stars who choose to play professionally in Europe until, presumably, they are eligible for the NBA. Last summer we witnessed a related phenomenon: established NBA players such as Jannero Pargo and Josh Childress turned down NBA contracts because they could make more money overseas. Exchange rates, tax rules, and economic conditions clearly played a huge role in their decisions. Now we see this trend with high school stars, though it has been several years since the NBA changed its rules regarding eligibility of high schoolers for the NBA Draft. European teenagers can start playing basketball professionally when they are as young as 14 or 15. I see no reason why Americans should be prevented from choosing to skip a year of high school or college to play in Europe, if they are actually talented enough that they can earn money overseas. We’ll see how this trend develops.
Dominic, thanks for the feedback. Fantastic Gladwell article (I read Blink and The Tipping Point but missed that article until now). Gladwell does a good job detailing the “quarterback problem” and then draws an interesting parallel to the teaching profession.
I loved The Blind Side. It was nice to see that the main character, Michael Oher, actually panned out–he was the 23rd overall pick of the draft on Saturday, going to the Baltimore Ravens. Your question about the impact of increased pay for Offensive Tackles is very interesting. I haven’t read any studies that deal with the issue but will let you know if I find something.
Mark Sanchez did take the Wonderlic test, and scored a 28. Matthew Stafford scored a 38, while Josh Freeman, the other quarterback taken in the first round, scored a 27. By comparison, Vince Young reportedly had a score of just 6, while Ryan Fitzpatrick, the former Harvard quarterback who just signed a lucrative deal with the Buffalo Bills, scored either a perfect 50 or very close to it, depending on which report you read. Regardless, as Gladwell points out, the Wonderlic is not a good indicator of success, and of the five quarterbacks taken in the first round in 1999, the most successful one, Donovan McNabb, had the worst Wonderlic score.
Thanks for raising these topics.