Consequently, the types of programs that broadcast networks can air, and the subsequent growth rates of these programs, differ considerably from the programs and program growth rates on cable.  Broadcast networks tend to only air shows that are likely to earn high ratings in the first season, leading to programming that sometimes has a one-size-fits-all feel.  Cable networks, on the other hand, can produce niche shows that might initially have low ratings but that have a chance to garner higher ratings several seasons down the road.

Cable programs, then, are much more likely than broadcast programs to exhibit significant season over season growth.  Most broadcast programs start out with large audiences that begin to dwindle each year, while cable programs tend to start smaller and progressively grow larger each season.

Take HBO’s True Blood, USA’s Burn Notice, AMC’s Mad Men, and TNT’s Leverage for example.  All of these shows enjoyed a healthy growth with each additional season, with True Blood taking home the prize for the largest seasonal jump.  ABC’s Desperate Housewives, NBC’s Heroes, CBS’s CSI: Crime Scene Investigation and FOX’s House didn’t fare as well in that they lost audience with each progressive year.

Note: Data from Nielsen Media Research as reported by TVByTheNumbers & Wikipedia

 That is not to say that there aren’t a few anomalies on broadcast networks.  Both  CBS’ NCIS and NBC’s The Office have grown by 50% (11.8M to 17.8M) and 70% (5.4M to 9.2M) respectively since their first seasons.  While those are impressive changes, the overall downward trend still remains for most broadcast networks.  In fact, of the shows we researched for ABC and FOX, we couldn’t find one that had grown in audience recently when comparing one season to another. 

As the options from cable networks continue to increase, it is harder for broadcast networks to maintain their grip on audience.  While broadcast networks still win in terms of audience size, cable networks are slowly catching up, producing numerous programs with large ratings, even if the ratings sometimes take a few seasons to develop.  With the Fall 2009 season quickly approaching, broadcast networks are hoping as usual that they have huge hits on their hands.  Cable networks also hope that their programs will be successful, but know that their shows likely have a bit more breathing room than broadcast programs, which tend to be dropped immediately if ratings are lackluster.

In less than a month, the broadcast networks will roll out their new shows for Fall 2009 season.  Among them are NBC’s Mercy, ABC’s Flash Forward, CBS’s The Good Wife, FOX’s Glee, and the CW’s Melrose Place.  With new shows comes the barrage of promotion, via television, radio, online ads, outdoor billboards, and within magazines/newspapers.   Resistance is futile.  Thou shall not escape the networks’ attempts to help you “learn” about these new shows.   Or maybe, just maybe, thou have.

Earlier this year, Accenture released its Global Broadcast Consumer Survey titled “Television: Entering the Era of Mass Fragmentation”.   The report highlights the ways in which consumers learn about new television content.  Of those polled, ads/promos garnered the highest response representing 40% of the group, followed by channel surfing (33%), and friends/family (30%).  More recent methods such as blogs, web content stores, mobile ads, and DVR/PVR recommendations were towards the end of the pack with 8%, 6%, 5%, and 2% respectively. 

In view of this Accenture’s survey results, it would seem that networks can’t afford to not reach all potential television viewers when it comes to on-air promotion.   That is, however, exactly what is happening. 

Note: Data from TNS Media Research’s Charter LA.  Time period: 2008-2009 episodes of the show’s most recently completed season.

 The table shows that less than half of potential viewers have been reached with an on-air promotion for any network’s new program.  These numbers will improve as the season approaches and finally begins, but as the following chart shows, even last season there was still a large population of viewers that had not seen a single promotion.

Note: Data from TNS Media Research’s Charter LA.  Time period: 2008-2009 episodes of the show’s most recently completed season.

Marketers are not reaching a large portion of the television viewing audience.  That a sizeable percentage of the potential audience does not see a promotion creates a downward spiral.  If you don’t see a promotion, chances are you won’t know about the program.  If you don’t know about the program, then you can’t watch it.  And if you don’t watch it, then ratings might decrease. 

The solution to this problem is simple.  Networks must increase their promotional reach prior to program launch and maintain it during the program season. 

A conversation from The Sandlot (1993) humorously illustrates the point of this issue, showing that people can’t consume something they know nothing about.  

Ham Porter: Hey, Smalls, you wanna s’more?

Smalls: Some more of what?

Ham Porter: No, do you wanna s’more?

Smalls: I haven’t had anything yet, so how can I have some more of nothing?