In less than a month, the broadcast networks will roll out their new shows for Fall 2009 season.B Among them are NBCbs Mercy, ABCbs Flash Forward, CBSbs The Good Wife, FOXbs Glee, and the CWbs Melrose Place.B With new shows comes the barrage of promotion, via television, radio, online ads, outdoor billboards, and within magazines/newspapers.B B Resistance is futile.B Thou shall not escape the networksb attempts to help you blearnb about these new shows.B B Or maybe, just maybe, thou have.

Earlier this year, Accenture released its Global Broadcast Consumer Survey titled bTelevision: Entering the Era of Mass Fragmentationb.B B The report highlights the ways in which consumers learn about new television content.B Of those polled, ads/promos garnered the highest response representing 40% of the group, followed by channel surfing (33%), and friends/family (30%).B More recent methods such as blogs, web content stores, mobile ads, and DVR/PVR recommendations were towards the end of the pack with 8%, 6%, 5%, and 2% respectively.B

In view of this Accenturebs survey results, it would seem that networks canbt afford to not reach all potential television viewers when it comes to on-air promotion.B B That is, however, exactly what is happening.B

Note: Data from TNS Media Researchbs Charter LA.B Time period: 2008-2009 episodes of the showbs most recently completed season.

B The table shows that less than half of potential viewers have been reached with an on-air promotion for any networkbs new program.B These numbers will improve as the season approaches and finally begins, but as the following chart shows, even last season there was still a large population of viewers that had not seen a single promotion.

Note: Data from TNS Media Researchbs Charter LA.B Time period: 2008-2009 episodes of the showbs most recently completed season.

Marketers are not reaching a large portion of the television viewing audience.B That a sizeable percentage of the potential audience does not see a promotion creates a downward spiral.B If you donbt see a promotion, chances are you wonbt know about the program.B If you donbt know about the program, then you canbt watch it.B And if you donbt watch it, then ratings might decrease.B

The solution to this problem is simple.B Networks must increase their promotional reach prior to program launch and maintain it during the program season.B

A conversation from The Sandlot (1993) humorously illustrates the point of this issue, showing that people canbt consume something they know nothing about. B

Ham Porter: Hey, Smalls, you wanna s’more?

Smalls: Some more of what?

Ham Porter: No, do you wanna s’more?

Smalls: I haven’t had anything yet, so how can I have some more of nothing?

Anyone who watches television today knows this to be true. And, anyone who sells or buys television advertising knows that the resulting audience fragmentation is a really big and growing problem — one that threatens the ad-supported foundation of the industry.

Today, it is virtually impossible for the majority of television viewers to be actually aware of the program choices available to them at any one time. The explosion of new channels, programs, platforms, devices, content choices and ways to view video at home has seen to that. In the old days, tools like TV Guide, TV listings in the newspaper, and “lead-in, lead-out” on-air program promos provided all of the information and navigation guidance that viewers needed. Then, their choices could be counted on the ten fingers of their hands. No more. Those tools, and even their online equivalents, have not been able to keep pace with the volume and diversity of television viewing choices available today. Certainly, we have electronic programming guides today but, according to Accenture, even those are only relied upon by a minority of viewers. I don’t know about you, but I myself find programming guides clunky to use and the information in them to be quite flat.

How to fix this? Should we just wait for someone to invent a new version of search for television, and solve this like we solved the problem online? I don’t think so. Here is why:

Video, not text. Search works great for text, but not very well for video. Television is all about video. Over time, more robust video searching will be devloped, but I don’t imagine that changing drastically over the next couple of years.

Little robust interactivity. Search works online because the primary interface to computers is a keyboard. Not so with TV. While remotes are getting more robust and cable TV infrastructure is getting smarter and more interactive, most Americans are not going to be typing search queries on their remote controls any time soon. Yes, I do imagine that smartphones may become remote controls themselves, I don’t imagine that happening in a majority of American homes for many years.

Entertainment-driven, lean-back usage. Using online services on computers is primarily a utility-driven, “lean-forward” activity. Watching video on a television is primarily an entertainment-driven, “lean-back” activity. Search is very powerful in a utility-driven environment. It is not nearly as powerful in an entertainment one.

I think that this problem is going to be solved incrementally, with solutions built on top of — or among — existing tools. Like Accenture, I think that enhancing on-air program promotion with data-driven recommendations and targeting will make a big difference (I am biased here, of course, since that is the path my new company is pursuing).

I also think that we will see social media play a very big role. Word-of-mouth is critical to television viewing choices and the proliferation of smartphones and mobile computing means more and more viewers will also be tethered to the Internet while they watch TV. Finally, I believe that online program listings will get better, and become more personal. These two will benefit from the dual usage of TV and online services.

However, I don’t think that when we turn our TVs on, the first thing we will see is a search box. That future I don’t believe in. How about you?

(This post originally ran on MediaPostbs Online Spin on June 11th, 2009.)