Loyalty varies significantly across shows.B FOX’s American Idol has the most loyal audience in the sample, with 65% of viewers watching at least two episodes this season.B On the other end of the spectrum, just 26% of Rescue Me (FX) viewers watched at least two episodes of the show.B The average Loyalty Score in the sample was 46%, indicating that fewer half of viewers watched a given show more than once.

In other words, even for a show like American Idol with a perceived loyal and devoted following, over a third of the rating on a given night is driven by viewers who will not return for any additional episodes.B For less popular shows, the phenomenon is even more extreme.B Three-quarters of Rescue Me viewers, and two-thirds of Mad Men (AMC) viewers, watched exactly one episode this season.B As indicated in the previous loyalty post, these one-time viewers have attention that is “for sale” and are ideal targets of promotion.

B

Data from TNS Media Research’s InfoSysTV.B Time period: First episode of the show’s current season (or most recent season if the show is not running currently) through February 2009, except for Rescue Me, where time period is the first five episodes of the season that started in April 2009.B Reruns are not factored into the analysis.

Darwin postulated that competition for limited food resources led to the single finch population on the island to diverge into 13 different species. Each species adapted to specialize on a different food source – resulting in the evolution of different beak shapes that we see today.

At Simulmedia, we think that TV networks face similar pressures as they compete for a share of increasingly scarce audience attention.B These pressures force networks to focus on attracting specific audiences.

We tested our hypothesis by adapting the Audience Attentiveness framework we introduced in an earlier post. B To recap, the Y-axis represents Attentiveness, measured as theB average network minutes viewed during primetime per viewer, the X-axis represents the Relative Segment Reach which is theB percentage of audience segmentB viewing primetime on that network, and the area of the bubbles represents the number of total network primetime viewers within each segment.

We predicted that broadcast networks should have programming that caters to a wide variety of audiences – intuitively, the only way they could maintain their large reach.B As a result broadcast networks should have audiences distributed across all four quadrants of the Simulmedia Attentiveness chart.

Cable networks, like the finches, should show signs of specialization.B We should see a small cluster of audiences with high attentiveness and high reach in the upper-right quadrant with the rest of the audiences clustering towards the center.B Data was extracted for February 2009 by applying Simulmedia Audience SegmentsB) on the TNS InfosysTV system.

As predicted, the cable networks we sampled displayed various degrees of specialization (see charts below). Their charts showed a cluster of audiences separate from the others in the top-right quadrant.B ESPN, as expected, with its exclusive focus on sports tends to be an extreme case of specialization as seen by the Basketball Fans.

Spike, although not as extreme as ESPN, tends to have relatively higher segment reach and attentiveness into the Remote Detective audiences; whereas for Discovery the core audiences are TV Naturalists and Reality Watchers.

Among the broadcast networks, while audiences interacted with NBC as predicted – relatively equal distribution across the four quadrants – CBS and ABC had remarkably different patterns. CBS and to a lesser extent ABC’s audiences aligned themselves almost perfectly in a straight line.

We think this indicates that CBS and ABC have adopted an audience acquisition strategy focused on niche audiences.B Their attentiveness charts look somewhere between a traditional broadcast network and a cable network.B This slight tilt towards specialization seems to have worked as both have beat NBC (when one excludes the Super Bowl) in the ratings game.

In conclusion, we think that TV Networks are adopting a range of audience acquisition strategies. B Cable networks continue to specialize on small niche audiences. Some such as ESPN are hyper-specialized focusing exclusively on sports audiences, whereas Discovery and Spike Cable networks show a lesser degree of specialization.B Surprisingly, broadcast networks are also showing signs of specialization as illustrated by CBS and ABC; however others such as NBC continue to execute on the traditional model.

As for the finches, they continue to evolve 150 years after their discovery by Darwin. National Geographic reports that “Since the arrival of the Large Ground Finch in 1982 on the island of Daphne the Medium Ground Finch, a long-time Daphne resident has evolved to have a smaller beak-apparently as a result of direct competition with the larger bird for food.”

Thoughts welcome….

*Thanks to Jeff Storan and Stewart Hauser for their help with the data visualizations.

Segmentation is a useful technique in our work to understand people’s viewing choices.B We divide and subdivide the general viewing audience into segments based on data describing people’s attention to television programming.B Then, we analyze how our segments tune in to different networks’ offerings and their responsiveness to different promotions.B B B

The analysis sensitizes us to trends in tune-in and promotional responsiveness.B It inspires ideas on how we can improve our segmentation and the classification of attention data that underlies the segments.B

Ultimately, we hope segmentation can help explain changes in tune-in.B Given how different segments tune in to a certain program, we want to make recommendations on the best promotional messaging strategy.B Or, when a program grows more popular, we want to look at how different segments tuned in and answer the questions of how and why did ratings improve.

In the meantime, through our sandbox, we want to share our early exploration into people’s viewing choices and get feedback on our approaches.B

As a foundation for taking in our exploratory work, we present our initial Genre Segmentation.B Genre Segments are unions of audiences who tuned in to similarly classified programs.B We’ve assigned a name to each Genre Segment corresponding, sometimes humorously, to the type of programming they’re likely to enjoy and written a brief persona description to help cement the relationship.B

The size of each Genre Segment population is a function of the definition we’ve issued to determine whether a viewer belongs to that segment or not.B In the table below, the size of the segment is indicated by the percentage of the viewing universe that belongs to the segment.B Segments with more restrictive rules are smaller; less restrictive, larger.B

You’ll find Genre Segments in our analyses of Audience Attentiveness and our Network Audience Heat maps.

B

Basically, everybody is watching everything all the time.B People may be loyal to a few programs and sampling a broad range of other programs.B It follows that the audience tuning in to any one program is a medley of audiences with diverse genre preferences.

Simulmedia has been working to understand this medley of audiences to the advantage of programmers interested in finding better and bigger audiences and to the benefit of viewers seeking content aligned with their preferences.

We’ve developed a few tools to help us on our way:

• Genre Segmentation – We’ve defined audience segments who tuned in to similarly classified programs. For example, “Laughtrackers” are more likely than the average viewer to watch sitcoms. “Remote Detectives” prefer crime dramas.
• Audience Program Consumption Bubble Chart – A data visualization plotting segments’ relative reach and attentiveness to a selected program.

In the example below, to understand how audiences allocate their attention to a show, we examine the interaction of twenty-one genre-based audiences with an hour long drama show on one of the major broadcast networks.

The Y-axis represents Attentiveness, measured as the average minutes viewed per show per viewer, the X-axis represents the Relative Segment Reach which is the percentage of audience segment that views the show, and the area of the bubbles represents the number of total viewers within each segment.

We think this tool is useful to refining the program’s promotional strategy.B Through review of the Program Bubble Chart program marketers can learn which audiences represent the core and which might be engaged to increase their loyalty.

Analyzing the quadrants…

Top-Right Quadrant: The show has a high penetration and high attentiveness among the DIY’ers, Heartstringers, Song & Dancers, Weekend Movie Watchers and Dramedy Devotees.B These audiences watch most of the show and do not get distracted easily by shows aired during the same time.B These audiences form the show’s core viewers.

Top-Left Quadrant: The show has a smaller following among Fake News Followers, Hecklers and Animated Grownups. These audiences are as attentive as show’s core viewers, and may be possible acquisition candidates as the show looks to expand its viewer base beyond its core.

Bottom-left quadrant: The show has smaller penetration in the TV Naturalists, Biography Buffs and Basketball Fans. Additionally as these audiences have low attentiveness they are at this show by accident or by channel surfing – and leave soon after they arrive.

Bottom-right quadrant: The show has high penetration into Thrill Seekers however they watch the show for a shorter period. This indicates that these audiences left the show after sampling it for a short while or were waiting for the next program to begin.

Thoughts, Questions, Comments welcome…….

One of the challenges is to convey the nature of audiences based on a deeper examination of viewing preferences in a manner that make them easy to understand.B With the assortment of data views compiled in the Audience Profile below, we attempt to do just that.

We combine general descriptions of the audience with a Geographic Distribution, a Genre Tune-in Index and the Primetime Loyalty heat map (which we covered in greater detail in a previous post).B The Geographic Distribution shows where the audience is located,the volume of audience present in different geographies (size of the circles) and the audience concentration relative to the general population (circle colors; red is highest).B Genre Tune-in Index measures the likelihood of tune-in to differently classified programming compared to the general population.

To gain insight to audiences’ loyalty to networks and discover which networks attract the attention of audiences with widely differing preferences for content, we again turn to heat maps applied to tune-in data gathered through TNS Media Research‘s InfoSysTV.

The tables below express two audiences’ tune-in to four networks’ primetime line-ups by day of week for a month.B The circle radii indicate the relative size of the cumulative audience viewing the networks’ programming each day of the week.B The percentage is the ratio of viewers who tuned in more than once to the cumulative audience.B The colors of the circle indicate how the loyalty percentage compares to the general viewing population; the darker the blue, the higher the degree of loyalty compared to the general population.

The first thing we notice is that the viewers who tune in to networks’ primetime programming week after week are the minority.B During the example month, no more than 39% of either audience tuned in to any networks’ primetime two or more times.

We also see differences in audiences’ affinity for the four networks’ programming.B Network3 attracts Crime Solvers in greater numbers than Family Oriented viewers and enjoys relatively high degrees of loyalty from Crime Solvers on Monday and Friday.

Although the loyalty Crime Solvers demonstrate for Network3 is greater than the general viewing population’s, only a small fraction of the audience (18% of Friday primetime viewers and 13% of Monday primetime viewers) tune in more than once.B Through examination of this view of data, Network3 might realize the opportunity to improve its ratings by focusing its promotional efforts on the Crime Solvers.

A note on construction:B we built the circles in the table using Sparklines for Excel.B The gray bars accompanying the loyalty percentages are Data Bars enabled with XL 2007 conditional formatting.

To gain insight to those different motivations and discover which networks attract the attention of audiences with widely differing preferences for content, we’re experimenting with heat maps applied to tune-in data gathered through TNS Media Research‘s InfoSysTV.

In the example heat map below, we examine how ten audience segments, organized according to their attention allocations to different program genres, tune in to ten different networks.B The radius of the heat map circles indicate the relative size of the audience tuning in to the network.B The colors indicate the audience rating compared to the general population; the darker the hue, the greater the rating relative to the general viewing population.

For programmers interested in locating the audience likely to enjoy their fare, we think this is a good way to start.B We see that Crime Solvers have affinity for A&E and USA.B We see that the Family Oriented audience arrives at scale to ABC Family and Disney.B With a quick glance at this heat map, we’re able to focus subsequent analysis on the few networks presenting the best opportunities to learn more about the core audience.

A note on construction:B We’ve used the plug-ins available at Sparklines for Excel to build our heat maps.

Consequently, we’re big on data visualization.B We’re always exploring new ways to present information to better align with people’s media mental maps and to increase people’s comfort with data that is massive, complex, and might otherwise be considered intimidating.

In this series of “Sandbox” posts, we present prototypes of data visualizations we’re trading around the office.B We describe our intentions for the visualization and how we interpret the data.B If you find the presentation compelling or have a critique, we encourage your comments.

Network Audience Heatmap

Primetime Loyalty

Audience Profile