Why The Holiday Campaign Race Starts in September

Early Planning Secures Advantage

By September, leading brands are already locking in premium holiday inventory — and with good reason. Some of our travel-industry customers begin TV planning and buying nine months in advance, ensuring both streaming and linear TV activation. Agencies often start as early as Q2, using capacity exercises and upfront timelines to avoid being boxed out of high-value placements.

It’s a smart move. According to our TV+ platform, campaigns that launched in September 2024 achieved 23% lower average CPMs compared to those that launched in November. The message is clear: top brands don’t wait until Q4 to buy Q4. They secure strategic inventory by mid-fall, when costs are lower, targeting options are broader, and there’s still time to test and adjust.

But early planning alone isn’t enough. Political shifts, social trends, and cultural flashpoints can change overnight. The most effective advertisers balance early commitments with flexibility. Locking in inventory through the upfronts is wise, especially for high-demand November placements. At the same time, holding a budget for scatter market buys enables teams to refresh messaging, respond to real-time events, and extend reach when it matters most.

Lower CPMs and Smarter Spending in Q4

Holiday campaigns reward both timing and strategy. Despite intense seasonal demand, our 2024 data shows that average CPMs dropped from $15.36 to $13.55 between May–August and September–December. The lowest CPMs appeared just before Thanksgiving.

Data from Simulmedia’s TV+ Platform
At first glance, that seems counterintuitive. But TV viewership rises in fall and winter, driven by back-to-school routines, colder weather, and tentpole programming such as Thanksgiving specials and NFL games. More viewers create more available inventory, especially across programmatic and remnant inventory. The result: diluted CPMs even as retail demand peaks.

Not all sectors move in lockstep. Retail spending surges in Q4, but other categories—such as pharma, B2B, and financial services—pull back or complete campaigns earlier in the year. That shift opens pricing windows in select placements, particularly in non-prime dayparts or guaranteed TV targeting segments.

In fact, Q4 2024 delivered not only lower CPMs but also 29% fewer airings and roughly $8 million less in net spend compared to the same period the year before. Rather than flooding the market, advertisers prioritized efficiency over saturation — and the data shows it worked.

Cross-Channel Strategy: Be Everywhere Your Audience Watches

Connected TV dominates headlines, but viewers don’t separate streaming from linear—they simply watch what they want, when they want. From bingeing new releases to live sports, audience behavior is fluid. That’s why successful campaigns don’t chase channels—they focus on presence across all screens.

Consider a pharma campaign we ran in November–December 2024. It reached 89.7 million unique viewers, with 95% of audience reach driven by linear TV and 3.5% contributed incrementally by streaming. While linear delivered scale—754 million of 770 million total impressions—CTV added incremental, high-value reach at lower volume.

Spend was also balanced: $1.24M on linear and $415K on CTV. The result was dominance across platforms, delivering a cost-effective presence across every screen.

The takeaway: a cross-channel strategy isn’t optional. It’s the foundation of modern TV media planning and buying. You don’t need to pick a winner between linear and streaming. You need to show up wherever your audience is—and that requires tools that unify targeting, activation, and measurement across all inventory types, including premium CTV inventory.

Conclusion: Turn Timing and Targeting into Growth

In the holiday season, advertisers can’t afford siloed thinking. Growth comes from strategies that combine scale with adaptability—where, when, and how audiences watch.

While some scramble for last-minute placements, the most effective campaigns are already in motion by September. Our customers use Simulmedia’s TV+ platform to plan early, adapt quickly, and measure results across both linear and streaming. Traditional television media buying can’t keep pace with fragmented attention and fast-changing cultural trends.

Success comes from showing up with purpose, precision, and measurable results. That’s how TV ad buying evolves from impressions to outcomes.